Economy

The Indian rupee is once again confronting significant downward pressure as global monetary tightening, persistent trade imbalances, and uneven capital inflows converge to weaken the currency. A stronger U.S. dollar, combined with India’s heavy import dependence and subdued exporter hedging, has contributed to a widening gap between foreign-exchange demand and supply. Despite assurances from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that it does not defend any predetermined exchange-rate level, its growing interventions highlight the heightened volatility in the currency market.

India is actively positioning itself at the forefront of the global industrial transition by fostering international partnerships focused on sustainable manufacturing, green technologies, and low-carbon industrial practices. The country is collaborating with leading economies, multilateral organizations, and private-sector stakeholders to accelerate decarbonization, enhance technological adoption, and create resilient supply chains.

Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has announced a strategic plan to enhance the global presence of India’s tribal products, positioning them as key contributors to the country’s export growth. The initiative aims to empower tribal artisans and entrepreneurs by integrating them into mainstream trade networks and expanding their access to international markets.

In a move to enhance convenience for millions of retirees, India Post Payments Bank (IPPB) has launched a doorstep Digital Life Certificate (DLC) service for Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) pensioners. The initiative enables pensioners to authenticate their life certificates from the comfort of their homes, eliminating the need to visit banks or government offices.

In a mixed development for consumers and industries alike, the government announced a hike in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices while simultaneously reducing domestic LPG cylinder rates, marking the latest round of monthly fuel price revisions. The contrasting adjustments reflect global crude market trends and domestic demand considerations. The ATF price increase is expected to raise operational costs for airlines, while the LPG rate cut will bring partial relief to households ahead of the festive season.

The Indian government is considering a calibrated relaxation of the ongoing sugar export restrictions for the 2024–25 season to manage rising domestic stock levels and ensure timely payments to sugarcane farmers. The move, if approved, could allow mills to ship a limited quantity of sugar under strict monitoring to prevent domestic price volatility. Policymakers are assessing production forecasts, ethanol diversion targets, and global market dynamics before taking a final call.

India’s small finance banks (SFBs) are on course to surpass Rs 2 lakh crore in total advances during the current fiscal year, marking a key milestone in the evolution of the country’s inclusive banking ecosystem. Strong credit demand from micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), coupled with expanding retail lending portfolios and rural penetration, has positioned SFBs as vital players in India’s credit landscape.

Pakistan’s total debt crossed $286 billion in the fiscal year 2025, reflecting mounting fiscal pressures, high borrowing requirements, and persistent trade deficits. Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of external loans, domestic borrowing, and currency depreciation. Rising debt servicing obligations are intensifying macroeconomic challenges, including inflation and currency volatility. The government is under pressure to implement structural reforms, enhance revenue collection, and attract foreign investment to stabilize public finances.

The real estate sector has witnessed a significant surge in fundraising during July–September, with total inflows reaching $1.15 billion, reflecting renewed investor confidence and market resilience. The growth is fueled by increasing demand for residential, commercial, and mixed-use developments, alongside favorable economic indicators and policy support. Analysts note that institutional investors, private equity firms, and high-net-worth individuals are actively participating in funding rounds, driving capital availability for new projects.

The latest RBI Bulletin highlights the resilience of the Indian economy despite global headwinds, including inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions. Key indicators such as GDP growth, industrial output, and services sector performance reflect robust domestic demand and structural stability. The Reserve Bank of India emphasizes monetary prudence, liquidity management, and policy calibration as critical to sustaining growth while containing inflation.