Economy

Maharashtra, India’s largest state economy, is projected to grow at 7.9 percent in the financial year 2025–26, slightly surpassing the country’s anticipated economic expansion of 7.4 percent. According to the state’s pre-budget economic assessment, the growth momentum will be largely driven by the services sector, which contributes nearly 60 percent to the state’s economic output. The state’s nominal Gross State Domestic Product is estimated to reach Rs. 51 lakh crore, while real GSDP at constant prices is projected at Rs. 28.82 lakh crore.

The Indian rupee depreciated to an all-time low of 92.16 against the U.S. dollar, reflecting mounting global pressures and domestic macroeconomic concerns. The sharp decline underscores persistent dollar strength, elevated crude oil prices and sustained foreign capital outflows from emerging markets. Currency volatility has intensified as investors reassess risk exposure amid geopolitical uncertainty and shifting interest rate expectations. Analysts warn that prolonged weakness could widen the current account deficit and increase imported inflation.

India’s foreign exchange reserves recorded a sharp increase of $19.4 billion, according to the latest data released by the Reserve Bank of India. The substantial rise bolsters the country’s external position at a time of heightened global volatility and currency market fluctuations. The accretion was driven by gains in foreign currency assets, valuation effects and possible central bank interventions. A stronger reserve base enhances India’s ability to manage exchange-rate pressures, stabilize capital flows and cushion against external shocks.

Precious metals surged sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a flight to safety across global financial markets. Gold climbed to multi-week highs, while silver posted strong gains, reflecting renewed investor demand for traditional safe-haven assets. The rally comes amid heightened uncertainty following military confrontations in the region, which have rattled equities and commodities alike. Market participants are recalibrating risk exposure, shifting capital toward assets perceived as stores of value.

Global crude oil markets rallied sharply, climbing nearly 9 percent after escalating hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran heightened geopolitical risk across the Middle East. Brent crude approached USD 80 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark prices rose to USD 72.79. Despite the spike in international benchmarks, retail petrol and diesel prices in India are not expected to increase in the immediate term, according to industry sources.

The Reserve Bank of India has announced that 98.44 percent of Rs. 2,000 banknotes in circulation at the time of withdrawal have been returned to the banking system, marking one of the most comprehensive currency phase-outs in recent years. The update reflects the steady progress of the central bank’s calibrated liquidity management strategy following its decision to withdraw the high-denomination note. While the note remains legal tender, its presence in active circulation has diminished sharply.

Gold prices recorded a dramatic surge of Rs. 7,000 in a single trading session, driven by escalating war-related tensions and heightened global uncertainty. The sharp rally underscores bullion’s enduring appeal as a safe-haven asset during periods of geopolitical instability. In Hyderabad, retail gold prices mirrored the national upswing, reflecting robust investor demand and precautionary buying. The sudden spike has reignited concerns over inflation hedging and portfolio rebalancing, while traders caution that volatility may persist.

India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections rose 7.9 percent year-on-year in February, underscoring steady economic activity and continued compliance improvements. The growth reflects resilient domestic consumption, stable industrial output and sustained trade flows despite global headwinds. February’s uptick adds momentum to cumulative fiscal-year collections, strengthening the government’s revenue base and supporting expenditure commitments. Analysts view the expansion as a sign of formalization gains within the economy and enhanced digital tax administration.

India’s economy is projected to expand at 8.1% in the September–December quarter of 2026, according to recent economic forecasts. Analysts attribute this robust performance to sustained domestic consumption, improving investment flows, and a resilient services sector. Industrial output is also expected to contribute positively, supported by infrastructure projects and manufacturing activity. While global uncertainties and commodity price volatility pose potential risks, the forecast underscores India’s capacity for stable, high-growth momentum.

The Indian rupee depreciated by 4 paise to Rs. 90.95 against the US dollar in early Friday trading, pressured by foreign institutional investor outflows and subdued domestic equity markets. Despite the downward move, losses were capped by a softer US dollar index and easing global crude oil prices, which provided partial relief to the local currency. The rupee had closed flat at Rs. 90.91 in the previous session, indicating a fragile equilibrium in the foreign exchange market.